The transition of political power in Cambodia from the era of former Prime Minister Hun Sen to that of Mr. Hun Manet in 2023 was a historic turning point that brought promises of administrative modernization and sustainable development. Under the framework of the “Pentagonal Strategy – Phase 1,” the new government set out a vision to transform Cambodia into an upper-middle-income country by 2030, emphasizing a balance between economic growth and environmental protection. However, the reality of the natural resource situation during the first two-plus years of this 7th mandate reveals a stark contradiction between policy ambitions and actual results on the ground, which face continuous deforestation and over-extraction of natural resources.
The transfer of power from father to son was accompanied by the reorganization of new institutional structures aimed at strengthening legitimacy through “governance efficiency.” Prime Minister Hun Manet inherited a political system referred to as “Authoritarian Developmentalism,” in which democracy and human rights are considered secondary compared to infrastructure building and economic growth. The Pentagonal Strategy – Phase 1 (2023-2028) identified “sustainability” as one of its five angles, indicating the government’s awareness of global climate challenges.
The Ministry of Environment, under the leadership of Mr. Eang Sophalleth, launched the “Environmental Circular Strategy 2023-2028,” which aims to reduce the rate of deforestation by half by 2030 and increase forest cover to 47% of the total land area by the same year. This ambition includes planting more than 1 million trees per year, achieving a mine-free Cambodia by 2030, and pushing the use of renewable energy to 70%. However, Mr. Seng Vanly, a social and geopolitical observer, sees that while the new leadership attempts to use the language of sustainability to attract green foreign investment, the structures of cronyism and the interests of powerful groups (Crony Capitalism) built during the previous era continue to hold significant influence over decisions regarding land use and natural resources.
Despite the announcement of green strategies, data from Global Forest Watch (GFW) and civil society investigation reports show a worrying trend. Between 2001 and 2024, Cambodia lost a total of approximately 2.9 million hectares of tree cover, equivalent to 33% of the forest area existing in 2000. This rate of loss is considered one of the highest in Southeast Asia and the world. In 2024 alone, Cambodia lost about 97,000 hectares of natural forest, equivalent to the emission of approximately 51 million tons of carbon dioxide. In-depth analysis of this data shows that 94% of the lost tree cover occurred in “Natural Forests,” which have the highest ecological value. This issue reflects the failure to protect remaining ecosystems, despite government efforts to plant new trees as compensation.
The most sensitive point is the loss within protected areas. Reports from Mongabay and Cambodian Economic and Environmental Journalists Association (CEEJA) confirm that approximately 56% of forest loss in 2024 occurred within the network of protected areas managed by the Ministry of Environment. This trend continued from 2023, a year in which Cambodia lost more than 120,829 hectares of forest cover. Regional analysis shows that Kratie, Kompong Thom, Ratanakiri, and Stung Treng provinces remain hotspots for deforestation. Kratie leads with a total forest loss of 380,000 hectares between 2001-2024. The primary drivers of this phenomenon are the extraction of hard commodities such as luxury timber and the conversion of forest land into large-scale industrial agricultural plantations.
The Prey Lang Wildlife Sanctuary is becoming a battlefield between conservation and resource exploitation. In November 2023, Prime Minister Hun Manet announced the designation of the Prey Lang area as a “Red Zone,” banning the issuance of new mining licenses. However, in January 2025, the government approved the construction of a giant cement factory on 99 hectares of land within the Prey Lang protected area for the company KP Cement. This company is known to have close political ties and a prior history of deforestation. The impacts of this project include the loss of resin trees belonging to the indigenous Kuy community and pollution from cement dust. Beyond the KP Cement case, the Prey Lang area also faces pressure from Vantage Mining and Nittetsu Mining. Additionally, a new high-voltage power transmission line has cut Prey Lang in two, causing the loss of approximately 9,346 hectares of tree cover in 2024.
While deforestation occurs on land, the destruction of natural resources underwater through massive sand dredging in the Mekong River is causing the riverbed to drop by 2 to 3 meters over the last 20 years. Data shows that the reverse flow that feeds the Tonle Sap Lake has decreased by about 40% to 50%. This is an existential threat to the Tonle Sap ecosystem, which provides up to 60% of fish protein for the Cambodian people. If sand dredging continues without management, scientists predict that the water flow into the lake could decrease by up to 69% by 2038, potentially leading to the total collapse of the Tonle Sap.
The Funan Techo Canal project, 180 kilometers in length, has been promoted as a “symbol of national sovereignty.” However, the groundbreaking in August 2024 without the submission of an international Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report has sparked debate about water diversion from the Mekong River and impacts on wetlands. A study by Mongabay confirms that this project could cause the displacement of approximately 2,305 families and risks of local drought. From a geopolitical perspective, this canal is largely financed by China (49%), pushing Cambodia further into China’s sphere of influence.
Under the “People as a Forest Shield” strategy, the government launched a social land concession program for poor families near forested areas. In February 2025, the first phase was implemented in Sesan District, Stung Treng Province, allocating 3,000 hectares to 500 families. However, experts worry that without proper economic support, these families may become additional forest encroachers. Meanwhile, the trend of converting “State Public Land” into “State Private Land” continues on a large scale, with nearly 8,000 hectares of state private land registered in 2024.
The unregulated mining industry along rivers is also causing toxic chemical pollution, such as arsenic and mercury, to flow into Mekong tributaries. Water quality tests along the borders have found arsenic levels up to five times higher than safety standards. Additionally, the government has continued its crackdown on environmental activists; the sentencing of 10 Mother Nature activists to prison in 2024 is evidence of the restriction of critical voices. The arrest of investigative journalists in 2025 has created an atmosphere of fear, making nature protection a high-risk endeavor. When these active citizens are arrested by the Phnom Penh authorities, it is not only a violation of individual basic freedoms but also a silencing of the voice of justice and a closing of eyes to environmental protection activities that are under threat. It also creates a massive void in the social monitoring system, as their presence is a vital driving force in monitoring and exposing illicit activities. The opportunity to prevent forest crimes, sand dredging, or the destruction of ecosystems is greatly reduced, allowing environmental criminals to continue their activities smoothly and without hindrance. This situation clearly reflects a negative image of Prime Minister Hun Manet’s leadership system, which appears not only to undervalue environmental activists but also to use the judicial system to silence those who dare to protest in defense of natural assets.
These crackdowns have become a signal showing that the preservation of natural resources is not a true priority for the government compared to protecting the interests of the powerful and the Oknha (tycoons) who are exploiting natural resources. The fact that the government chooses to continue detaining youth instead of collaborating with them to eliminate corruption in the environmental sector is a confirmation that the current regime is allowing natural disasters to occur intentionally or by design, leading to severe impacts on the future of the nation’s environment as a whole.
Through an examination of data from 2023-2025, the root of the problem remains the power structure that relies on the distribution of natural resources to maintain political alliances. The use of nationalism in the Funan Techo Canal project has become a tool to distract from environmental impacts. The weakness of international mechanisms, such as the Mekong River Commission (MRC), has made transboundary water management more difficult.
Overall, this situation reflects a dangerous balance between modernization ambitions and the maintenance of a conservative agenda of power. To achieve the sustainable vision of 2030, the government must ensure data transparency, end impunity for major companies with political ties, and open the space for freedom for environmental activists and independent media. Transitioning from an “extractive” economy to a “value-added” economy is a necessary step. If Hun Manet’s government cannot break this cycle of “destruction for economic growth,” then achieving upper-middle-income status by 2030 will be paid for by the loss of a natural heritage that cannot be bought back.
