Though their political ban is due to end on Wednesday, former opposition officials will likely have little opportunity to make a difference in the upcoming election, the politicians as well as analysts say.

Five years ago Wednesday, the Supreme Court dissolved the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party, removing the main challenger to Prime Minister Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party.

Observers called the court’s 2017 decision the “death of democracy,” ushering in five years of a restricted political environment. In 2018, the ruling party swept all 125 seats in the National Assembly without a viable opposition. In 2019, exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy pledged to attempt a return to Cambodia, and sparked hundreds of arrest warrants, jailings and court charges against opposition activists. CNRP co-founder Kem Sokha’s treason trial began in early 2020 more than two years after his arrest, and is yet to conclude.

Alongside the dismantling of the CNRP five years ago, 118 of the party’s top officials were banned from politics for five years. That ban is set to lapse on Wednesday.

But at least 17 of the 118 have been convicted in other court cases since, including most of the party’s top leaders, and will not be free to return to politics. At least 33 others have received pardons from the state, and have either defected to the ruling party or joined minor opposition parties. At least five have died in the five years.

The whereabouts of 47 of the 118 could not be ascertained before Wednesday, and an opposition official suggested that many were keeping quiet for now but would be coming back to politics. However, those who spoke to reporters — and have managed to avoid both defection and court convictions for this long — said there was little appetite to return.

Prak Savoan, a former CNRP select committee member, said political participation felt meaningless at this time.

“If we participate with the Candlelight Party or any other party, I think it means nothing [and won’t] let us help the nation and the people. I think like this because I’ve monitored and observed from one party to another. … They just strengthen their voices and that can’t help our nation,” Savoan said.

“So I will wait till there is a political compromise and president Kem Sokha is released. We can talk with each other and have some negotiations. Then we can participate in a fully democratic competition.”

Mam Sokvoeurn, 70, a former treasurer for the CNRP’s women group, said she and her husband, Sok Um Sea, had been involved in politics for a long time, originally with the Sam Rainsy Party. That party merged with Sokha’s Human Rights Party to form the CNRP.

Both she and her 80-year-old husband, a former Kampong Speu lawmaker and one of the 118 banned officials, were now retired, she said. They worked on their Preah Vihear plantation instead.

“I have already decided that we are already in old age and will give opportunity to younger people … only asking for happiness till the last day of life.”

Younger activists should return to politics, but it was a difficult situation, Sokvoeurn added.

“Frankly, it is a bit hard to talk about. The situation seems to be tense,” she said. “I believe that the younger people have more energy than us and more understanding than us and have learned a lot more than us.”

Former CNRP lawmaker Keo Phirum said he had retired with intestinal cancer.

“I can’t participate in politics because my health is weak,” Phirum said, though he believed at least some of the 118 officials could be returning to opposition politics.

Currently, the opposition is led by the Candlelight Party, a rebranding of the legacy Sam Rainsy Party. It won 22% of the vote in June’s local-level election, and is headed by vice presidents Son Chhay and Thach Setha. Both are among the 118 banned CNRP officials, but have applied for and received amnesty.

Other pardoned officials include Ou Chanrath, founder of the Cambodia Reform Party, and Yem Ponhearith, head of the Kampucheaniyum Party.

Political analyst Em Sovannara said the activities of the minor opposition parties ahead of next year’s general election will make Cambodia’s political environment appear more lively than it is.

The National Election Committee has not been reformed, and the smaller parties are acting separately without unity.

“It will just be political participation to beautify the democratic garden, but it has no smell,” Sovannara said. “If the NEC has not been changed and is still the same, and the smaller parties are still separate, the upcoming election will offer no contest to take popularity from the ruling CPP.”

The minor parties are already facing pressure: Chhay, Candlelight’s vice president, has been convicted of defamation for complaining about June’s vote, and ordered to pay $750,000 to the ruling party.

There was reluctance about rejoining the fray, said Chanrath, the founder and the vice president of Cambodia Reform Party. His party had not received any requests to join from former CNRP officials who are about to be reinstated, he said.

“So far, some people seem to be hesitant about participating in politics because some individuals felt disappointed over their previous efforts,” Chanrath said, referring to the failure of the CNRP. The CNRP was dismantled despite winning around 44% of the vote in both 2013 and 2017.

“I believe that there is no decision and a large number will stay still and will not participate or do anything yet.”

Many could also still be nervous about whether the ban would actually be lifted, he added.

Earlier this month, Supreme Court spokesperson Ouk Kimsith said that after November 16, banned CNRP politicians who have not been involved with any new offense will have full rights to return to politics.

“Those who were only under the ban of doing political activity, when the time comes, they can do politics again. But if they did any activity later on and were sentenced by the court, it is another thing,” the court spokesman said.

So far, the chief exception to the widespread hesitation has been opposition lawyer Choung Chou Ngy.

Chou Ngy, who has represented dozens, if not hundreds, of activists in court in recent mass trials and a string of other cases, said he would join the Candlelight Party after November 16, believing he would be able to make a bigger difference in the political arena than in the courtroom.

“We have to be ready to mount a challenge,” he said earlier this month. “[If] we want society to progress and have democracy, we have to dare to challenge more for the nation.”

“Since we can’t avoid challenges as human beings, we should face the big one for the benefit of the nation. Then our life will be useful for society.”

Sokha’s lawyer Meng Sopheary is also among the 118, but said on Tuesday that she had yet to make a decision. She would only participate if there was real competition, she said.

“It seems not to be a rival in competition if we compare the athletes. It seems one side weighs 70 kg and the other side weighs 30 kg or 20 kg.”

Candlelight vice president Setha could not be reached this week, but previously said that he believed more former CNRP officials would join his party after November 16 — he just did not know how many yet.

Chea Poch, a former CNRP lawmaker, said he was not ready to talk about returning to politics. He would only comment after 5:30 p.m. Wednesday, he said.

“Now, I won’t dare to make any comment, because we have two or three more days,” he said on Monday. “We still have two more days, and I don’t want them to have any excuses. We don’t accuse anyone, but we don’t dare to make any comment.”

The 118

Graphic by Michael Dickison. Ananth Baliga contributed to compiling the data.